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CN211276 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:42 am This takes me back to my O Level in British Constitution and the supremacy of Parliament. This situation was theorised and has now come about. The executive simply cannot do what it likes without the consent of the legislature. The EU will not agree to any other deal so it is a case of stay in or out with no deal. A no deal will not get through Parliament, by what ever means, probably non approval of the Finance Bill, which means we will remain. A second referendum will rubber stamp this.

The EU would agree to a Norway type deal and they have also previously offered a Canada type deal.

savvypaul wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:11 am

CN211276 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:42 am This takes me back to my O Level in British Constitution and the supremacy of Parliament. This situation was theorised and has now come about. The executive simply cannot do what it likes without the consent of the legislature. The EU will not agree to any other deal so it is a case of stay in or out with no deal. A no deal will not get through Parliament, by what ever means, probably non approval of the Finance Bill, which means we will remain. A second referendum will rubber stamp this.

The EU would agree to a Norway type deal and they have also previously offered a Canada type deal.

The Irish border situation would still remain and there would be a lot of opposition to an open border. It would mean a huge Government climb down and split the Tory party. Cant see it happening.

CN211276 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:27 am

savvypaul wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:11 am

CN211276 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:42 am This takes me back to my O Level in British Constitution and the supremacy of Parliament. This situation was theorised and has now come about. The executive simply cannot do what it likes without the consent of the legislature. The EU will not agree to any other deal so it is a case of stay in or out with no deal. A no deal will not get through Parliament, by what ever means, probably non approval of the Finance Bill, which means we will remain. A second referendum will rubber stamp this.

The EU would agree to a Norway type deal and they have also previously offered a Canada type deal.

The Irish border situation would still remain and there would be a lot of opposition to an open border. It would mean a huge Government climb down and split the Tory party. Cant see it happening.

The Irish border situation will require a backstop, or other solution, in any deal that takes us out of the Customs Union. A Norway type deal would see us stay in the Customs Union, so no changes needed to what we have now; we retain an open border and there is no need for a backstop. I can't see any opposition, from anyone, to retaining an open border. A Norway deal would breach TM's red line about leaving the Customs Union, though.

The Tory party is already split.

The only way i can see a Norway style agreement is if the Government lose the confidence vote today and Labour win an election. I cant see this happening.

CN211276 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:54 am The only way i can see a Norway style agreement is if the Government lose the confidence vote today and Labour win an election. I cant see this happening.

The Norway scenario is thought to have the most support in parliament. Whether it can command a majority...not sure, yet.

Whether it can go through also depends on whether TM feels able to tear up her red line that insists we leave the Customs Union.

I don't propose the Norway deal as something I want...might as well stay in and have a say.

Personally I want someone to invent enormous nuclear motors to push us to the Caribbean and park us next to Cuba, and become part of that Socialist Paradise.

But maybe it is just because I haven't seen the sun for weeks.

Dr Bunsen Honeydew wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:21 pm Personally I want someone to invent enormous nuclear motors to push us to the Caribbean and park us next to Cuba, and become part of that Socialist Paradise.

But maybe it is just because I haven't seen the sun for weeks.

Maybe it's just because it's a very good idea, at any time...

I can't see any opposition, from anyone, to retaining an open border.

But but but, immigrants...

I don't have any problem with free movement of people, but it seems a lot do.

The real problem is that unless something is decided, we WILL leave with no deal, its the only outcome that is already possible in law. If no other deal is decided that's the default.

Lurcher300b wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:09 pm

I can't see any opposition, from anyone, to retaining an open border.

But but but, immigrants...

I don't have any problem with free movement of people, but it seems a lot do.

The real problem is that unless something is decided, we WILL leave with no deal, its the only outcome that is already possible in law. If no other deal is decided that's the default.

Sorry, I was talking in the context of the island of Ireland.

I'd keep free movement, too.

Yes, the default is no-deal...but I believe that the MPs will find a way to avoid it.

It is built into British Law from way before the CM or EU that there is freedom of movement in GB, all GB inc Ireland which is a part of the GB (that is what GB means, the greater [ALL] parts of the islands that form Greater Britain). They are with us as not being members of the Schengen area, they are already very like us, in some ways more so than the rest of the EU.

This is all about politics and opportunity. The Republican Irish see this as an opportunity to get a united Ireland. The other way, like the elephant in the room, is not being discussed, it is S Ireland leaves the EU and has a customs and virtually every other union apart from politics and sovereignty and a union in island of Ireland will eventually occur by default and everyone is better off.