Can the world act fast?

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CycleCoach
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Re: Can the world act fast?

Unread post by CycleCoach »

karatestu wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:30 am We are never going to agree on this so probably best we leave it there. I wish I never started this thread now..
Thanks for bringing this subject up Stu. It IS really important and definitely should be discussed.
Unfortunately, as with other important subjects, I'm already detecting the polarisation and conspiracy-embracing which often makes rational discussions impossible.
The overwhelming majority of scientists agree that climate change is a real and imminent danger to us.
So what are we going to do?
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karatestu (Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:18 pm)
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Re: Can the world act fast?

Unread post by karatestu »

CycleCoach wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:48 am
karatestu wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:30 am We are never going to agree on this so probably best we leave it there. I wish I never started this thread now..
Thanks for bringing this subject up Stu. It IS really important and definitely should be discussed.
Unfortunately, as with other important subjects, I'm already detecting the polarisation and conspiracy-embracing which often makes rational discussions impossible.
The overwhelming majority of scientists agree that climate change is a real and imminent danger to us.
So what are we going to do?
This thread as with most that have a political edge to them is in great danger of falling in to ad-hominem and I hate having to moderate. Climate change debate seems to stir up such emotions and anger and I can already detect some anger in this thread.

Yes I believe the overall majority of scientists agree. I can also see the argument that the earth has been in constant flux through it's history. The conspiracy theories are understandable I suppose and I have tried to understand them better. I am sceptical about the motivations of those in power or who can influence due to their levels of wealth and stake in capitalism but my scepticism has been totally outweighed by the shear level of scientific agreement.

The brain washing for the profit of the elite is a possibility but to me it all looks a bit David Ike. The IPCC is a United Nations body set up to advise governments across the globe. I fail to see how this level of possible corruption could happen. It has been said that scientists are influenced into agreeing with climate change theory to further their funding. Not sure what to think of that.

Anyway what are we going to do ? Well it would be a shame if the poor and vulnerable were the ones that have to pay through the nose but there is a very good chance of that happening. I think the UK's response will be the usual Boris hand gestures and empty promises. The move from ICE to EV is all very good but that in no way represents all the CO2 produced. Lorries, tractors, ships, garden machinery, cement production, aviation, manufacturing the list goes on. I do know battery is still more expensive than its fossil fuel alternative but I hope that changes as economies of scale take hold.

Cement production is a big one for me. Development is the driving force of capitalism and growth. Lets build lots of world class structures that are the envy of the rest of the world just to make the economic figures look good - who cares if those developments actually get used as long as growth and GDP looks good (see Japan). I do not know how that will be curtailed as more of paradise is paved and more parking lots get built. The main possible cement substitute is fly ash which is a by product of burning coal :roll:

I can't see the necessary speed of change indicated by the scientists can ever happen without the tearing down of capitalism and the constant need for growth. I suspect our response will be no more than fannying around the edges due to the need for growth, politics, greed, laziness and the head in the sand mentality (amongst other things). Most of the posters here may not live long enough to really find out what is going to happen in the next few decades.
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Re: Can the world act fast?

Unread post by savvypaul »

Some of the most worthwhile threads are those where there is passionate disagreement - that will never be discouraged at HFS.

However, you must play the ball, not the man. CN211276 & Copperblue - I have removed ad hominem from your posts.
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Re: Can the world act fast?

Unread post by NSNO2021 »

The challenge is that the status quo currently benefits the people with money and power and it's their collective money and power that all to often shapes whose in government and what "their" policies are. The power brokers are savvy, they understand how to get their self serving messages over to the masses, how else can you explain the Brexit vote or that destructive arsehole Trump getting in. As I said to Stu, change will come, it has to come but when and at what cost are the big unanswered questions. From my perspective the sooner the better.
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Re: Can the world act fast?

Unread post by karatestu »

I'm gonna park this here and see what people think. Blatantly copied from another forum

The one thing we have to call out are these ridiculous obfuscation and diversion tactics — is CO2 really increasing and if it is, is human activity to blame, is the Earth really warming and if it is, how can we be sure it's cuz of us.


Image


The latest IPCC report updates a powerful piece of evidence for anthropogenic climate change — a comparison of global temperature since 1850 from two sets of models, one that includes and one that excludes 170 years of CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. Simply put, without anthropogenic greenhouse gases (what we're directly responsible for) the warming seen since 1850 simply doesn’t happen

The rate at which the graph is climbing after 1850 is alarming. The duration of this climb fits in with the modern industrial age and the length of this incline is much longer than anything in the reconstruction of the last 2000 years.

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Re: Can the world act fast?

Unread post by CN211276 »

ljones67 wrote: Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:40 am UK Column talked about climate change yesterday and mentioned this report / declaration:

https://clintel.org/wp-content/uploads/ ... t-2020.pdf


James Dellingpole also did a really interesting show with Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore recently:

https://odysee.com/@JamesDelingpoleChannel:0/moore:1
The first link says it all. The list of scientists not taken in by the :Bllocks: and not part of the gravy train is lengthy. Graphs and charts are open to wide interpretation.

I see the root of the problem as a refusal to acknowledge that we are not in control of our destiny. Co2 emissions since industrilisation is the straw that has been grasped on in the face of reality. All the proposed measures, which will not happen becouse they are politically unacceptable, would not make a blind bit of difference.
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Re: Can the world act fast?

Unread post by r3xj0hn570n »

If that graph reflected reality, it would be alarming.

https://realclimatescience.com/are-offi ... -credible/

The US temperature record is very important, because the vast majority of global stations in the NOAA GHCN database with a long term daily temperature record are located in the US.

This is just one of the many ways...
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Re: Can the world act fast?

Unread post by r3xj0hn570n »

As someone who has a formal education in Mathematical Modelling, i fail to see why people trust these models. For historic data the models are designed/manipulated to correlate as best they can. The fundamental principles of these models contain coefficients that are simple guessed at or curve fit and can show whatever the modeller wants them show.
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Re: Can the world act fast?

Unread post by NSNO2021 »

r3xj0hn570n wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:42 pm As someone who has a formal education in Mathematical Modelling, i fail to see why people trust these models. For historic data the models are designed/manipulated to correlate as best they can. The fundamental principles of these models contain coefficients that are simple guessed at or curve fit and can show whatever the modeller wants them show.
Ok let's go with your viewpoint, what would you replace it with or more to the point how would you present the data ?
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Re: Can the world act fast?

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NSNO2021 wrote: Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:39 am Ok let's go with your viewpoint, what would you replace it with or more to the point how would you present the data ?
Presenting a theoretically infinite amount of data, that has been sampled at non-random locations without calibration, and projected back in time by examining archaeological evidence, as a single number on a graph is pointless. I simply wouldn't even attempt to show something like "average temperature", however it is defined. Creating a computer model where correlation with this "average temperature" is similarly pointless.

A more useful metric would be data like, "number of days over/under temperature X", or "frequency of Y type weather events". Those are more accurately rendered in human recorded and archaeological history. The IPCC report specifically mentions that most of these metrics have not changed. I have yet to see a computer model show results like this (doesn't mean that they don't exist, but no-one has obviously presented data like this).
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