UK veto [continued from former forum]

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UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by sc_ita » Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:24 pm

I think that this thread could be of some interest to be continued: http://thehifisubjectivist.noadforum.co ... ?f=4&t=565

Just as a stimulus, I report a phrase referring to the first response (by our Doc) to my introduction:
"I think it is certain Italy will be out of the Euro in about a year or sooner." by Dr Bunsen Honeydew on 2011-12-10, 02:19:20 pm

By now it is almost the period of one year, but it seems to me (and I hope) that the values ​​of politics and society in Europe (at least continental) are standing up pretty well against those of financial speculation. What do you think?

Ciao, Siro

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Re: UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by Dr Bunsen Honeydew » Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:35 pm

:oops:

But what happens when the sticking plaster runs out :?

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Re: UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by sc_ita » Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:50 pm

I think the question is a little deeper. The recent vote of the Dutch seems very interesting in this regard.
S.

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Re: UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by Dr Bunsen Honeydew » Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:54 pm

Sorry I am not keeping up with it, what has that done, has it helped or hindered.

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Re: UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by sc_ita » Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:10 pm

Well, in the Netherlands recent political elections saw the defeat of the populist parties hostile to the European Union.
Considering the difficult times and the risk of closure into short-sighted selfishness, for me this means that the glue that binds the peoples of Europe is something deeper than any Community rule (or plaster).

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Re: UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by Dr Bunsen Honeydew » Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:18 pm

Well if you had that election in the UK, rightly or wrongly the anti EU would get a landslide victory, and interestingly a straw poll was taken of EU immigrants who are working in the UK and they are even more anti EU :? They want the UK out as long as they can stay here :D

Now personally in that election I would vote for in and membership of the Euro if they can ever get it set up sensibly, which has been the problem all along - it was done in a completely daft way. Political expediency.

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Re: UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by Dr Bunsen Honeydew » Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:25 pm

Taking that further there were only a very small number of countries that were ready and able to join in the monetary union. That was what The Snake was for in the early 90's. BUT they decided to break their own rules so it became a disaster waiting to happen, and it was the early 2000's lending and growth bubble that allowed it to survive for so long. If it had been set up with Germany France and Benelux initially we wouldn't be having these problems, but Italy was EU founder so it became an ego / pride thing that it must be in, so if Italy why not everyone else - blow the rules :roll:

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Re: UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by sc_ita » Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:53 pm

I disagree with this analysis. The real problem for Italy was purely political, not economic, and the only real risk is that we can still run Berlusconi (and his minions unable) to resume power. I have traveled the world to know quite well that Italy is one of the richest countries in the world (on a par with France and Germany). Is incorrect and does not make sense to put on a par with Spain, Greece etc.. that however strongly we want to remain with us.
Ciao, Siro

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Re: UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by Dr Bunsen Honeydew » Fri Sep 14, 2012 4:13 pm

You miss the point it was not the richness of the country, if everything including culture and lifestyle has a price placed on it then Italy is probably the richest country on the planet. BUT it is not that, there were a set of rules, and at the time of the instigation of the Euro it was only Germany (I include Austria), France and Benelux that met the rules (and France was a bit dodgy). Italy was included for political reasons. Quite simply you have and have always had historically too much borrowing relative to your GDP. It has regularly caused currency crisis in the Lira days, which always led to devaluation, BUT you cannot devalue if you are in the Euro !!!!!

EDIT - the UKs problem was an overvalued currency, which is why it was attacked in the early 90's when we were in the snake. After coming out of the snake it made it impossible for us to join for at least a decade, and then it became politically impossible to join.

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Re: UK veto [continued from former forum]

Unread post by sc_ita » Fri Sep 14, 2012 4:27 pm

I know this, but now we are in good company. USA is approaching us, while Japan has doubled us,
accordingo to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_debt

Competitive devaluations were quite usual in the past and the UK was not far behind us. More recently, I remember that in January 2009 the GBP was almost in parity with the Euro. In this sense, only Germany can be saved. The solvency of debt and financial speculation depend on some factors that have roots in the politics, otherwise Japan would KO. Instead Japan, with about 250% of debt has a NEGATIVE spread!

Ciao, Siro.

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